Statistics: Odds-on Brazil to Win the 2014 FIFA World Cup

One of the favorites to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup is host Brazil. However, statisticians headed by Achim Zeileis from the University of Innsbruck show that the winning margin is considerably higher for Brazil than generally expected. By applying their statistical model based on bookmakers' odds, the researchers previously correctly predicted the 2008 EURO final, Spain as the 2010 FIFA World Cup Champion and again as the 2012 EURO Champion. After 36 years the FIFA World Cup competition returns to South America. And as in all previous South American FIFA World Cup events, a South American team is again expected to take home the victory - this time the host Brazil. These are the results of a study carried out by statistician Prof. Achim Zeileis from the University of Innsbruck and his two colleagues Dr. Christoph Leitner and Prof. Kurt Hornik from the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna). The scientists have applied a model that proved reliable in forecasting the results of the 2008 and 2012 EURO events and the 2010 FIFA World Cup: the bookmaker consensus model.