Political opinion polls can do two things: they can reflect public opinion or they can shape public opinion. Florian Woschnagg and Matthias Karmasin recently conducted a study on the credibility of political opinion polls and how they are perceived - depending on the type of medium that commissions and publishes the opinion poll. The results have now been published.
According to earlier study results, the impact of the publication of surveys by the media depends on the quality of the survey. -We know from the literature that there are influences: If the media report on well-conducted, high-quality surveys, these are more likely to reflect public opinion, while the publication of low-quality surveys can shape it instead-, explains Florian Woschnagg, who conducted the current study as part of his dissertation project.
In an online experiment with 1,600 participants from Austria, the researchers found that a survey published by a public service medium is not perceived as more credible than a survey published by a tabloid newspaper. However, the researchers were able to show in their study that the public broadcaster ORF is perceived as more competent in the presentation of political opinion polls compared to the tabloid medium OE24. The study also shows that ORF tends to give the impression that it publishes opinion polls out of benevolent motives. In addition to these two dimensions, the respondents’ voting intentions also play an important role when it comes to the credibility of opinion polls. If one’s own party is in the lead, this seems to increase the perceived credibility of the survey - this result is also consistent with the findings of other studies
-Interestingly, in our experiment - in contrast to other study results - providing detailed information about the poll leads to a lower perceived credibility, which shows us: We need a higher level of competence among the population in Austria to correctly assess the quality of surveys. The media and opinion research institutes are also called upon to introduce suitable instruments here," continues Florian Woschnagg.
Florian Woschnagg & Matthias Karmasin (2025). Do You Believe in Polls After All? An Experimental Study on Credibility in Political Opinion Polls, https://doi.org/10.5771/1615-634X-2025-4-567 .
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