The fact that the local glaciers are not doing well can now be seen with the naked eye: In the Ötztal/Stubai region alone, around 20 percent of the total ice melted between 2006 and 2017. Five glaciers disappeared completely in the same period. How long the "eternal" ice in the Austrian Alps will be able to survive depends heavily on how the climate develops in the coming years. In the scientific journalThe Cryosphere, the Austrian-British research team presents a glacier model that allows reliable regional forecasts based on current data from Tyrol.
"Thanks to the high-resolution observation data, we were able to precisely calibrate our model for the region for the first time. As a result, our model delivers realistic forecasts, as the comparison with the actual development up to 2024 shows. Such regional data is crucial for creating confidence in the model forecasts," says Patrick Schmitt from the Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences at the University of Innsbruck. Schmitt co-developed the Open Global Glacier Model ( OGGM ).
Current climate policy leads to complete disappearance
The results of the glacier researchers are sobering: even in the optimistic scenario, which assumes that global warming will not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, only three percent of the current glacier mass in the Ötztal/Stubai region will be left by 2100. The current rate of warming is already around 1.3 degrees Celsius. "If we assume a warming of 2.7 degrees, as is to be expected under the current climate policy, the glaciers in the region will soon have disappeared completely. The 1.5-degree target - and thus the chance of preserving a small part of the regional glacier mass - is still achievable, but the window of opportunity is closing very quickly," says climate expert and co-author Fabien Maussion from the Universities of Innsbruck and Bristol.What is particularly worrying is that the regional forecasts can also be extended to the rest of the country: "There won’t be much left of the Austrian glaciers by the end of the century. We have many small glaciers that are currently shrinking rapidly and will disappear in just a few years," says Lea Hartl from the Institute of Interdisciplinary Mountain Research at the Austrian Academy of Sciences.
Glaciers are becoming dead ice
The situation of the glaciers is already so precarious that any remaining remnants of ice can no longer even be called glaciers. "We are watching the glaciers disappear. Remnants of ice that no longer have any flowing movement or a nutrient zone are no longer actually glaciers. This is called dead ice," explains Hartl.According to the researchers, glacier loss in the Eastern Alps is already well advanced compared to other regions of the world. In many other mountain regions of the world, ambitious climate policy could still make a decisive contribution to the preservation of glaciers. Thanks to the good glaciological data situation in Austria and the expertise of the various research institutions, the region is suitable for process studies and model development, which contribute to a better understanding of global glacier developments.
Animations:
Example Hintereisferner
Other glaciers in the Alps
Credit: Patrick Schmitt, University of Innsbruck
Publication:
Hartl, L., Schmitt, P., Schuster, L., Helfricht, K., Abermann, J., and Maussion, F.: Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met, The Cryosphere, 19, 1431-1452, 2025 doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025 (Open Access) PEAK - Climate, Biodiversity and Sustainability in Focus
The man-made climate crisis is already having a massive impact today, which will continue to intensify in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows clear consequences and possible measures. Numerous experts are conducting research on climate and sustainability at the University of Innsbruck.
With the PEAK (Perspectives on Engagement, Accountability and Knowledge) project, the communications team at the University of Innsbruck is pooling this expertise and presenting the brains behind the research.
